Margin of Error

Statistically speaking, margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey’s results. If the statistic is a percentage, this maximum margin of error can be calculated as the radius of the confidence interval.

Halimbawa, nagsurbey ka ng 1,800 tao na may +/-2 error margin. Pagkatapos ng surbey nakakuha ka ng 2%. Kung susumahin, hindi lang naman eksaktong 36 (=1800*2%) ang nakuha mo, kundi nasa pagitan ng 1 hanggang 71. Magulo? Ganito:

= np +/- npq
= [1,800*(2%)] +/- [(1,800)*(2%)*(98%)]
= 36 +/- 35.28 (~35)
= [(36-35),(36+35)]
= [1, 71]

http://fc09.deviantart.net/fs18/f/2007/220/7/0/Nose_Bleed_ID_by_Magic_ToothPick.jpg

Para saan ang lecture ko? Bukod sa na-miss ko ang Stat 1 (weeh?) ay nabasa ko ang latest surbey ng Pulse Asia, at nabasa ko rin ito:

Despite being in sixth place, with only two percent votes, in the recent Pulse Asia survey for presidential aspirant, Lakas-Kampi CMD standard bearer Gilberto “Gibo” Teodoro said that he remained optimistic about his campaign.

Gibo, Pare, mag-usap nga tayo. Ibig sabihin nyan meron ka lang isa hanggang 71 na boto sa 1,800 na tao na kumakatawan sa lahat ng botante sa Pilipinas. Biruin mo yun, pwedeng isa lang ang boboto sa iyo? Kung nasa Grade 5 class ka, parang sinabi mong “I nominate myself”, at syempre ikaw din lang ang boboto sa sarili mo.

The error speaks for itself. The error I’m referring to is not a statistical term.

Source: Inquirer, Pulse Asia, Wikipedia, Papa Karl

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